Ohio Summit on Children Working Together for Our Future

Point-in-Time Forecasts of Children in Care


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    Point-in-Time Forecasts of Children in Care

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    An essential aspect of managing is planning for the future. Long-term success of organizations is closely related to how well management is able to anticipate the future and develop appropriate strategies. This presentation provides statistical forecasts on the number of children who will need out-of-home placement each month from August 2009 to December 2012. We generated these statistical forecasts from past data without weighing the important influences of future community, policy or program changes. We strongly recommend, therefore, that program and policy experts examine and modify these statistical forecasts by factoring in predicted community and program changes. 

    After selecting your county from the drop-down box, you can explore your data using the tabs at the top of the presentation.   


  1. How have policies, programs, court and community events contributed to the volatility of number of children in care?

  2. What policies affect the length of stay?

  3. Will these policies be changed or modified over the next two years?

    • If so, how will the changes exhibit themselves in these forecasts?

  4. What new programs are in the design or implementation phases that will affect the number of children in care?

    • How will the forecasts be impacted and when?

  5. Examining the historical data, what events were taking place at the highest and lowest points?

  6. How likely with those events recur, and when?

  7. Knowing how your agency responded to those events, what would you do differently?